Google's "limited by budget" emails estimate what a bigger budget could buy, but they say nothing about what those extra conversions would cost. Check the extra cost per conversion before you click Apply.
Sooner or later, every Google Ads advertiser gets the email: your campaign could be getting more conversions with the right budget. Below it, a button to raise the budget, often to several times what you spend today, in one click.
It sounds like free money. It isn't, and it isn't a scam either. It's an estimate of what more budget could buy, without the one number you need to decide: what each of those extra conversions would cost.
The short version
- Google sends the email when a campaign is "limited by budget", meaning it missed part of the traffic it could have had because the budget ran out.
- The estimate comes from Google's simulations. In the email's small print, Google writes that results aren't guaranteed and that the figure can be up to 48 hours old.
- The extra conversions are rarely as cheap as the ones you get today. The first euros in a campaign buy the best clicks, and the extra euros buy the rest.
- Work out the extra cost per conversion before you click: extra spend divided by extra conversions. If that's above what a conversion is worth to you, leave the budget where it is.
Why Google sends it
A campaign is labeled limited by budget when it missed 5% or more of its potential traffic in the last week because its budget ran out. Google then estimates with simulations what a higher budget might have brought, based on recent auctions, competition and your keywords' traffic.
That's useful information. Your campaign is leaving searches on the table. The question is whether those searches are worth what they'd cost.
What the email leaves out
The email shows two numbers: the extra conversions and the new budget. It doesn't show what each of the extra conversions would cost, and that's usually the expensive part.
Here's an example. A campaign spends 400 a day and gets 32 conversions a week, so a conversion costs about 88. The email suggests 1,200 a day for 32 more conversions a week.
- Today: 2,800 a week for 32 conversions, about 88 each.
- Suggested: 8,400 a week for 64 conversions, about 131 each on average.
- The extra 32 conversions cost 5,600, which is 175 each, twice what you pay today.
The average only rises from 88 to 131, which looks fine. But the money you add buys conversions at 175. If a conversion is worth 120 to you, the first 400 a day make money, and the extra 800 lose it.
The numbers are made up for the example, but the shape is typical. When a budget is raised, Google first buys more of the clicks it was already winning, then moves on to searches that are less likely to buy and auctions it has to bid higher to win.
How to decide
- Find the extra cost per conversion. Extra spend divided by extra conversions, using Google's own estimate. Treat it as the best case, because the estimate isn't guaranteed.
- Compare it with what a conversion is worth. For a shop, that's your margin on an average order. For a lead, it's what a lead is worth after the ones that never become customers. If you work with ROAS, find your break-even ROAS first. See What is a good Google Ads ROAS for my business?
- Check that the conversions are real. If page views or basket steps count as conversions, the estimate counts them too.
- Raise in steps. If the numbers work, raise the budget by a fifth or a third, wait a week or two, and look at what the extra spend actually bought.
Also keep in mind that Google can spend up to twice a campaign's daily budget on a single day. A higher daily budget raises those peaks too.
Should you switch off the emails?
You don't have to. They're a fair warning that a campaign is capped. Just don't let the one-click button make the decision for you.
How Bavian handles it
Bavian can read Google's recommendations and weighs them against your account's own numbers. A higher total budget is only ever a suggestion that waits for the owner's yes. Bavian never raises it on its own.
